July 6: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Stories we’re following…
Overnight, Russia launched a massive drone attack using 322 Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy drones. As of 09:30 AM, 292 drones were neutralized.
ISW: Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on the night of July 3 to 4, primarily targeting Kyiv City. Russian forces have conducted 10 of the largest strikes in the war since January 2025.
Mo’s Comment: Missile and drone strikes seek to weaken Ukrainian resolve and unity first and foremost. Russian strikes kills Ukrainians and residents, but they also degrade infrastructure: electricity, water, gas, and communication services. The war is also destroying the Ukrainian eco-environment, and disseminating toxins in the earth and in Ukrainians themselves.
Ukrainian emergency and public services rush to areas that have been struck by Russian ordinance and they work quickly to bring first aid, and then clean up the rubble. E-Stories cannot list the damage that is done to Ukrainians and their cities but it should be noted that this is a daily occurance that causes trauma and death— every single day in eastern Ukraine since 2014, and full scale since February 2022.
Ukrainians and their armed forces are protecting Europe’s eastern flank, and European NATO members and others have been providing assistance and arms, but it is the Ukrainians who are bearing the full brunt of Russian aggression. They are protecting their sovereignty while many EU politicians ‘talk’ of sovereignty only and use it for propaganda purposes.
EU defence stakeholders realise fully what Europe is up against, and will have to face in a few years time. Shoring up EU deterrence posture should incorportate increase aid and armaments to Ukraine as well. They’ve been working on it in earnest since October 2023 but they moved to slowly at that time, and now they must accelerate, and find a way to neutralise those who are rowing against their efforts.
Europe must increase its strategic deterrance, which includes Ukraine because if Ukraine folds, Russian forces will be directly on the border of Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, and will activate its forces in Transnitria. Poland has bolstered its defence, but the pocket of European states to the east are vulnerble. There is no time left for ‘grave concern’—it’s time to move quickly.
Russia attacked Kharkiv region with a Shahed drone carrying cluster elements that continued exploding for up to 20 hours after impact, according to the Humanitarian Demining and Rapid Response Center. Some exploded 2–6 hours after being dropped, the last one went off nearly a full day later.
Mo’s Comment: Please see EuroFile’s conversation with Zarina Zabrisky about the human safari in Kherson, and how drones are being used to drop mines that explode some time afterwards.
The police have already received almost 70 reports from minors who said that the Russians tried to recruit them to commit acts of sabotage. At the same time, more than 60 teenagers agreed to commit crimes, Vasyl Bohdan, head of the juvenile police of Ukraine, said in an interview for Ukrinform news agency.
Since the beginning of 2025, law enforcement officers have recorded 65 facts of sabotage involving 62 children aged 13 to 17. Their main motivation, says Bohdan, is money.
"Also, these teenagers have a partial desire to assert themselves or a blind belief that they will not be caught. But no child realised that he could die or receive any terrible injuries. They all considered it an easy part-time job, sometimes not even knowing that they were working for the enemy," he notes.
Combat Situation
Russian forces have occupied the settlements of Zelenyi Kut and Novoukrainka near the administrative border between Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast and are trying to advance further, reports DeepState. The villages are located near Dachne, where the Russians are actively trying to break through the Ukrainian defences. The situation in the vicinity of Dachne is dynamic and tense.
ISW: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian forces struck the Borisoglebsk airfield near Voronezh, home to Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM jets. According to the General Staff, a guided bomb (KAB) depot, a combat trainer aircraft, and possibly several other jets were destroyed. Damage is being assessed.
The Engels military airfield in Russia's Saratov region was reportedly also targetted by drones. Local channels reported electronic warfare systems were active, and residents noted mobile networks were down during the drone attack.
Ukrainian long-range drones are striking the Vutherm factory in Cheboksary, more than 1200 km from Ukraine’s border. The facility is part of Russia’s military-industrial complex and produces Kometa antennas, which shield Russian aerial targets from electronic warfare systems.
Re-upping this: 'There is also good news' — Ukrainian drones hit key military optics plant in Russia, General Staff confirms. Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's counter-disinformation center, said a drone hit the Azov Optical and Mechanical Plant in the town of Azov, Rostov Oblast. The facility reportedly manufactures critical components for the Russian military, including sights, rangefinders, thermal imaging systems, and fire control equipment for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, and aircraft.
A gas pipeline explosion near Vladivostok has cut off supply to parts of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, according to RBC-Ukraine. The blast sparked a fire that destroyed sections of the “Vladivostok” pipeline, which powers several military sites along the Sea of Japan coast.
“All leadership of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been eliminated, according to a Russian war correspondent.” Previously it became known that the brigade’s HQ was targeted by at least 4 GMLRS strikes.
Behind the Lines
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff pushing to lift energy sanctions on Russia, Politico reports. While Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly advocating for the easing of energy sanctions, others in the administration disagree. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum favors reducing U.S. reliance on Russian imports rather than expanding trade, according to Politico.
Zelensky, Trump discuss air defense, joint drone production amid Russian strikes. "Today we discussed the situation: Russian air strikes and, more broadly, the situation on the front lines. President Trump is very well informed," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
"Looks like Putin wants to go all the way and just keep killing people." The U.S. will continue helping Ukraine with ammunition: “We’ve helped them and we’ll keep helping. The situation is very difficult. We’ll see what happens next. I already told you I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin.”
Patriot systems to Ukraine is possible: “They need them for protection. I don’t want to see people dying.” He said Putin refused a ceasefire and fears sanctions, adding: “Ending the war is a priority. I’d like it to happen.”
Reminder: 'Disingenuous' Hegseth paused Ukraine weapons despite Pentagon finding aid wouldn't hurt US readiness, NBC reports. A senior military review had concluded that while some munitions stockpiles, including precision weapons, were low, they had not fallen below critical thresholds, according to NBC. Still, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth opted to stop the shipment. This is reportedly his third such move since February.
Fox News: Putin is using his Ukraine attacks to show that he and his allies are mightier than the US, and president Trump needs to do everything he can to support Ukraine, former CIA operative Daniel Hoffman says.
Russia expands military presence in Armenia amid tensions with Azerbaijan — Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence claims. Moscow is accelerating deployment at its base in Gyumri, Armenia, aiming to increase military-political pressure on South Caucasus states. Troops are reportedly being recruited from Rostov, Volgograd regions, and occupied Crimea.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Small businesses in Russia face much greater difficulties than large companies due to the high key rate and related non-payments. This was stated in an interview with RBC by the first deputy chairman of the board of Sber, Alexander Vedyakhin. According to the top manager of the largest Russian bank, since October 2024, Sber has been recording an increase in requests for debt restructuring from small businesses. He emphasized that this is not a large-scale non-payment crisis, but the situation requires attention: large companies are increasingly delaying payments to small businesses, which is why the latter are experiencing a shortage of working capital.
Russian billionaire Strukov detained by FSB trying to flee Russia on private jet. FSB detained Konstantin Strukov, head of gold giant Yuzhuralzoloto (largest privately-held gold mining company in Russia) and deputy of the Chelyabinsk regional parliament, while he attempted to flee Russia to Turkey.
Rostec will not sell Iran the remaining shares of the Astrakhan port, a sea terminal for transshipment of grain and other goods on the Russian Caspian coast. The state corporation's press service said that this issue is not being considered, Interfax reports . "Rostec maintains plans to develop this transport hub as an important logistics hub for the country along the North-South route," the statement emphasized.
On July 1, it became known that the subsidiary of the Iranian state-owned company IRISL, Nasim Bahr Kish , which owns 53.66% of ordinary and 51.29% of preferred shares of PJSC Astrakhan Port, sent an offer to buy out the shares of the remaining shareholders, including 25% owned by Russia. At the end of 2024, President Vladimir Putin transferred this package to Rostec to increase exports of products to India and Iran. Based on the buyout price of 37.8 thousand rubles per share, the transaction amount could have been 437.5 million rubles. Mir Business Bank, established by the Iranian Bank Melli, has already provided a guarantee for it.
Agricultural products, metals, timber, and fertilizers are transshipped through the Astrakhan port. In 2024, it increased cargo turnover by 21.6% to 947.33 thousand tons, and net profit by 4.8 times to 208.3 million rubles year on year. In exports, the main volumes are timber, grain, and oil. Since 2023, the port has been forming its own fleet.
The debt of Russian companies on insurance premiums - that is, deductions for pension and medical care for employees - increased by 22% for the period from January to March 2025 and reached 352 billion rubles. This was reported by Izvestia , citing data from the Accounts Chamber. For comparison: as of June 2024, the arrears were almost half as much - 179 billion rubles, according to an audit document.
The authorities have closed almost all demographic statistics. The report on Russia's socio-economic situation for May , published this week, did not include the usual information on natural population growth, the number of births and deaths, marriages and divorces, migration, or even the population size.
"The section 'Demography' is simply missing" in the report, MMI analysts complain . Rosstat has already closed detailed statistics. The report "On the natural movement of the population" published in May for the first quarter and March contained only general figures, without a breakdown by region. Since then, the section has not been updated, there is no data for April - not even that.
Rostov Oblast, Russia's main grain region, is experiencing problems with the harvest due to drought. Last year, Rostov farmers had expected 16 million tons of grain, but harvested 11.4 million tons after the region experienced several waves of recurrent frosts and then faced a deficit in precipitation. This year, the situation has worsened. The grain harvest could fall by another 20%, the acting governor of the region, Yuri Slyusar, warned. Earlier, he declared a state of emergency in 19 districts of the region due to the drought, which also affected the north of the neighbouring Krasnodar region. (Mo: this is the story they are spinning. There could be other reasons including the state not buying enough seed as in the case of potatoes.)
OPEC+ has agreed to further increase oil production starting next month — an additional 548,000 barrels per day will be added to the global market, which will naturally impact the price of crude oil.
POLITICO Opinion: Putin is invading more than Ukraine
Putin’s aggression is focused on the U.S. and all its allies. He’s spending millions of dollars, bombarding European voters with manipulative social media and disinformation campaigns on a mass scale. It’s a new type of warfare on democracy that eliminates the need to roll tanks into capitals.
Putin’s constantly evolving playbook is the result of his failed military campaign to capture Kyiv and strangle Ukrainian democracy. He ran into Ukraine’s indominable resilience, and as a result, he began deploying a long-standing Russian (and Soviet) strategy to destroy Western democracies from within by supporting and cultivating pro-Putin political candidates. And TikTok, Telegram and other social media channels are now weapons in this new kind of war.
Never far from his KGB roots, the Russian president realizes public opinion can be manipulated and shaped by political proxies and propaganda beholden to Russia’s strongman. One only need examine Romania’s recent election to confirm this sinister truth.
The social media blitzkrieg consisted of “misinformation” and a multimillion dollar Leninist-style effort to destroy democracy in Romania. The effort’s design also included undermining U.S., NATO and EU security interests. And it was just in time that this stealth invasion of Romania’s electoral process was uncovered by Romanian and other Western intelligence services.
Unfortunately, too many people who should know better are still cozying up to Putin, backing his pro-Russian candidates and undermining the security of the U.S. and other democratic allies. Elon Musk protégé Mario Nawfal was in Moscow in May, while tech billionaire Elon Musk’s father and controversial American right-wing commentators Jackson Hinkle and Alex Jones attended the Future 2050 forum in Moscow in June. Speaking at the forum were numerous Putin allies: right-wing Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and former president Dmitry Medvedev.
The Romanian battle was won, but Putin’s war on democracy continues. Who’s next on his list? This fall’s elections in Moldova, Estonia, Georgia, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and other European nations are all ripe for interference. But before his propaganda can take hold, it’s imperative to crack down on his violations of election laws.
The fight for democracy now extends to cyberspace, where Putin’s invasion tactics must be thwarted, just as they’ve been on the battlefield. The new battlefield is online, and the stakes are democratic sovereignty.
The lesson from Romania is clear: The best defense against propaganda is truth — and the courage to speak it.
Mo’s Comment: There was only one new development in information warfare since it’s inception:
the use of the internet and other technologies to disseminate narratives and carry out disinformation campaigns. The basics have been with us since the beginning and span efforts of ancient civilisations (Roman for example), the Catholic Church (who institutionalised the office of propaganda), the US Revolutionary War, the Napoleonic Wars and so on. Large masses were affected during WWI, the interwar period, WWII and the Cold War. So, electoral interference and using information warfare to manipulate and steer foreign publics is nothing new.
We simply don’t invest in the protection of our information spaces, and that must begin with ourselves and with our national publics through the education system. It’s a gargantuan task, but if we are to understand how we are being manipulated, we must begin to invest resources toward countering foreign information manipulative campaigns.
In Europe…
German Chancellor Merz: "Russia is already attacking us today. The infrastructure, we have attacks, arson attacks, what has also happened in barracks here in recent days. The trails almost all lead to Russia."
Germany has sent Ukraine 3 Patriot systems—25% of its own arsenal—exceeding the U.S. contribution, Bloomberg reports. Berlin is now in talks with Washington to send at least 2 more systems and interceptors. A decision may come during Pistorius’s U.S. visit July 14–15.
The CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanné, has said that Europe is ready to eliminate Russian gas (including LNG) completely by 2028 based on data analysis. To be noted that TotalEnergies Russian gas amounted to 20% of imports, while in 2021 it was 40%.
Turkey and Belgium join the international "drone coalition" co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom reported the Latvian Ministry of Defence. With the new expansion, the coalition now includes 20 countries: Latvia, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Estonia, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Turkey, Germany and Sweden. The total financial commitment of the coalition member countries to support Ukraine in 2025 is €2.75 billion. Of this, about €180 million was directed to a single drone procurement fund managed by the United Kingdom. These funds are intended for the centralized procurement of drones needed by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Germany reportedly mulls $29 billion tank, vehicle order to deter Russia. Berlin is reportedly considering purchasing up to 2,500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and up to 1,000 Leopard 2 battle tanks.
Russian artists readmitted to Italian festival: On July 27, as part of the Un’Estate da RE festival, a performance by Russian conductor Valery Gergiev and soloists from the Mariinsky Theatre is scheduled in Italy. Vincenzo de Luca, the founder and patron (president) of the Un’Estate da RE festival, said:
"I see a truly great artist in Gergiev, together with the soloists from Saint Petersburg. I want to express particular satisfaction at this presence. When Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, there was a moment of stupidity in our country—a moment of madness. People almost started banning Russian artists from performing in Italy; there were even issues at La Scala. Even if some American political figures, NATO, and parts of Europe still don’t seem to understand that—doing everything they can to push Russia into China’s arms. Russia is Europe. That’s why we are especially proud to once again have Gergiev with us."
Response from MEP Pina Picierno: “It is unacceptable that European funds are used to finance the performance of a Kremlin supporter, Valery Gergiev, in the “A Summer as a King” festival. There are those who, after three and a half years of war, still haven’t understood that lending support to Putin’s regime, even through such initiatives, represents a legitimization of his vile imperialism and is a huge problem.
In the meantime, it is my duty and that of the EU institutions to ask the festival’s Director and the President of the Campania Region Vincenzo De Luca to intervene to change the program and ensure that taxpayers’ money does not end up in the pockets of a supporter of a criminal regime.”
Comment from Mo: Gregiev has been sanctioned by the UK, France and Canada. He is considered one of Putin’s wallets and his profession allows him to disseminate Russian propaganda and soften Western audiences towards Russia. De Luca seems to have conveniently forgotten what Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and that Putin and many Russian authorities are now war criminals according to the ICC for having violated humanitarian and international laws. Many private citizens in Italy and Italian MEPs in Brussels have been able to check Russian propaganda efforts in Italy, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so.
An ally of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has resigned after allegations of sexual harassment — in a fresh blow for Spain’s Socialist Party just weeks after a string of corruption scandals erupted.
Francisco Salazar, a close ally of Sánchez, stepped down from his position as a deputy in the party’s secretariat and asked for the claims to be investigated, the Socialist Party said in a statement.
The allegations were made in the left-wing Spanish news site elDiario.es. The outlet alleged that Salazar made inappropriate comments about a female subordinate’s clothing and body, invited her to dinner alone and asked her to sleep at his home.
Mo: Sanchez may face elections soon due to the scandals that are rocking his government. He needs to shore up his base. Hence the reason why he didn’t want to stick to the 5% NATO commitment for defence spending. His base doesn’t not agree with increasing defence spending.
UK Restores Diplomatic Relations with Syria — First Visit in 14 Years. In a major foreign policy shift, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Damascus, marking the official restoration of diplomatic ties between the UK and Syria — the first such visit in over a decade. Lammy said the move aims to support Syria’s new government in creating “a stable, secure, and prosperous future” for the Syrian people. The UK had already eased sanctions in April and announced €1.2 billion in humanitarian aid during the visit — signaling a turn from isolation to engagement.
Global News: CSIS issues espionage alert about suspect seeking sensitive information for Chinese intelligence.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service confirmed on Friday that it had issued an “espionage advisory” to government departments and universities, notifying them about the person.
“We can confirm that an espionage advisory was shared with certain federal departments and universities regarding a person who is attempting to obtain sensitive and privileged Canadian information on behalf of the People’s Republic of China intelligence services,” a CSIS spokesperson said.
“CSIS advised recipients to use extreme caution when dealing with this person and avoid discussing confidential and sensitive information with them. We also advised that suspicious encounters with this individual should be reported to the appropriate security officials.”
The CSIS spokesperson, Eric Balsam, said the intelligence service issued such warnings as part of its effort to “protect and safeguard sensitive and privileged Canadian information.” The PRC is considered Canada’s top counter-intelligence threat, and has long tried to steal research and technology from Western countries.
The first suspect to be prosecuted in Canada for economic espionage, electric vehicle battery researcher Yuesheng Wang, was arrested in 2022 for allegedly obtaining trade secrets for China while employed at Hydro-Québec. [continue reading]
In other news…
Torrential rains triggered flash floods along the Guadalupe River, killing at least 24 people. Rescue teams scrambled to save dozens of victims trapped by high water or reported missing in the disaster. Among the missing were 23 to 25 people listed as unaccounted for at an all-girls summer camp. More than 230 people were rescued or evacuated, most by helicopter, throughout the day yesterday, officials said.
CNN Update: 9-year-old missing camper Janie Hunt has died, mother says. The mother of missing Camp Mystic camper Janie Hunt, 9, told CNN in a message this morning that her daughter has passed away.
14 children have lost their lives as reported by the New York Times.
Axios: The MAGA movement is reveling in the creativity, severity and accelerating force of President Trump's historic immigration crackdown.
Once-fringe tactics — an alligator-moated detention camp, deportations to war zones, denaturalization of immigrant citizens — are now being proudly embraced at the highest levels of the U.S. government, Axios' Tal Axelrod and Zachary Basu write.
It's an extraordinary shift from Trump's first term, when nationwide backlash and the appearance of cruelty forced the administration to abandon its family separation policy for unauthorized immigrants.
Six months into his second term — and with tens of billions of dollars in new funding soon flowing to ICE — Trump is only just beginning to scale up his mass deportation machine.
Trump on Tuesday toured a temporary ICE facility in the Florida Everglades dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz," where thousands of migrants will be detained in a remote, marshland environment teeming with predators.
MAGA influencers invited on the trip gleefully posted photos of the prison's cages and souvenir-style "merchandise," thrilling their followers and horrifying critics.