Dec 21: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope Pond&Beyond
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…During the night of December 20-21, Russia launched 97 attack drones against Ukraine from multiple directions including occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 75 of them across all regions. At least 19 drones struck 8 locations, with debris falling in one more.
Russia attacks Odesa Oblast with ballistic missiles, 8 killed, 27 injured after passenger bus struck. "Russia carried out a missile strike on a port infrastructure facility in Odesa Oblast. Some of the victims were on a bus that was at the epicenter of the strike," the State Emergency Service reported.
President Zelenskyy says officials are reviewing the performance of those responsible for air defense in Odesa following recent events. Vice PM Kuleba and Deputy Head of the Office of the President Viktor Mykyta are on-site, coordinating efforts with local authorities as the investigation continues.
Dec 19: 10 Shahed drones struck the bridge near Mayaky in Odesa region overnight, and later that day a ballistic missile hit it. Video shows the warhead was cluster type. The bridge has been damaged, and the Kishinev–Odesa route is temporarily closed.
Russian forces crossed into Ukraine near the village of Hrabovske in Sumy region and abducted over 50 civilians. Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from several positions in the area due to the assault. Stabilization efforts are now underway, according to a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
Combat SituationReuters—US intelligence believes Putin’s goal remains unchanged: full conquest of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe once under Soviet control. Despite claims from Trump’s peace team that the war could soon end, intel paints a total different picture aligned with European assessments. Poland and the Baltics fear they’re next.
Ukrainian Forces control 10 cities in Donetsk Oblast with a pre-war population of ~500,000 people. Two large rivers, 10 cities, 240 settlements, and extensive fortifications pose a massive obstacle to Russia capturing Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian forces continue degrading Russian capabilities:
Ukrainian special forces hit Russian patrol ship and oil platform in Caspian Sea. SSO drones also hit a Russian oil platform located at the Filanovsky oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea. The platform is owned by Russian oil company Lukoil and is used for oil and gas extraction.
Ukrainian drones hit 2 Russian Su-27 jets in Crimea, intelligence agency says. The drones are operated by the SBU's Special Operations Center "A" (Alpha), according to the agency.
The SBU’s “Alpha” unit has struck its third Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea in recent weeks, according to media sources. Long‑range drones from the Special Operations Center “Alpha” targeted a Lukoil drilling platform at the Rakushechne field. Drone footage reportedly shows a successful hit near the platform’s gas turbine installation.
A substation in Aksay, Rostov region, erupted in flames following a drone alert and explosions. Power and heating were cut in parts of the city. Soon after, another substation in Kursk caught fire.
Stanislav “Spaniard” Orlov, commander of Russia’s notorious 88th Brigade “Española,” was reportedly shot and killed during an attempted arrest by Russian security forces. The “Española” unit is known for attracting far-right extremists and former Wagner fighters.
In occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian RSP-6M2 radar system, used to guide aircraft in low-visibility conditions.
Reports indicate that a Russian Project 22460 patrol ship “Myslyvets” was struck.
Ammunition detonated in Russia’s Bryansk region following a Ukrainian strike. According to Russian sources, the explosion triggered ongoing secondary blasts at the site.
Ukraine has finally revealed the cruise missile “Bars” in public imagery, a long‑range strike weapon already being used against Russian forces. Originating as a program officially acknowledged in April alongside systems like Peklo, Palyanytsya, and Ruta, Bars had until now never been shown visually. Photos released by the Museum of the Russo‑Ukrainian War show its classic mid‑wing design, twin‑tail layout, and a small jet engine mounted above the fuselage for simpler production and easier engine sourcing.
A grim ultimatum: In a newly intercepted call released by Ukraine’s military intelligence, a Russian sailor from Belgorod reveals a grim ultimatum from the Black Sea Fleet: “Sign the contract, stay on the ship. Don’t sign, get sent to the infantry.” Those refusing to renew contracts are being reassigned to the notorious 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, known for catastrophic losses during frontal assaults. The sailor describes it bluntly: “810 means storming positions. You know what that means.”
Ministry says 202 Indian citizens recruited by Russia to fight in war against Ukraine. According to Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Russia had mobilized 18,092 foreigners from 128 countries as of October.
Behind the LinesBudanov: Russia may attack Europe as early as 2027.
Russia initially planned to begin direct aggression against NATO countries by 2030, but has now revised its plans, shortening the timeline to 2027 said Ukrainian intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov. He is confident that Russia plans to occupy the Baltic states. At the same time, Poland, according to him, is viewed by Russia solely as a target for strikes, for a military campaign without occupation.
Putin says that if NATO countries start a blockade of the Kaliningrad region, Russia will start a full-scale war in Europe.
“If threats to the Kaliningrad region are created, Russia will destroy them. Everyone must understand and be fully aware that such actions will lead to an unprecedented escalation of the conflict, taking it to an entirely different level, up to a full-scale armed conflict,” Putin said.
Mo: The ‘if’ conditional actually signals that this is one operation the Russian military forces could initiate. NATO is a defensive organisation that does not initiate war.
I’m also wondering if Gabbard got the email. In the post below, the US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard denied Reuters reporting that Russia aims to occupy all of Ukraine and threatens Europe. She’s also deaf to what Putin and his proxies have been saying all week, not to mention since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Ukraine's delegation meets American officials in US for new round of talks. "We agreed with our American partners on further steps and the continuation of our joint work in the near future," delegation leader Rustem Umerov said after the meeting. According to Axios, representatives from Turkey and Qatar have joined the format for the first time.
The Wall Street Journal: Putin personally picked U.S. real estate developer Steve Witkoff as a key backchannel negotiator with the U.S., WSJ reports. The Kremlin’s outreach reportedly began via Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who passed a message to Witkoff that Putin wanted to meet him directly. Moscow vetted Trump’s circle and saw Witkoff as acceptable. His involvement included close coordination with Putin aide Kirill Dmitriev.
Putin’s aide Ushakov dismissed the US-proposed Ukraine–US–Russia meeting, saying it’s “not under serious discussion.” He also claimed changes pushed by Kyiv and Europe “block a lasting peace.” (So what is Dmitriev doing in Miami?)
'Alternatives to US support are uncertain' — Zelensky says 'strength' to end war exists with Trump, names 'most difficult issues' in negotiations. "I believe such strength exists in the United States and in President Trump. And I believe we should not look for an alternative to the United States, because all alternatives are uncertain as to whether they can end the war)," President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters.
Euromaidan Press: We put Putin's 19 December speech next to Hitler's 1939 Reichstag address. Seven steps. Same sequence. Same wording. The formula aggressors use to make conquest sound like self-defense hasn’t changed in 86 years.
"I wanted peace." "They rejected everything." "I was forced to act."
Auonsson: The Russian logistics ship ADLER is at anchor IN Sweden. It has possibly broken down. It usually runs heavy weapons to Russian bases in Africa and the Middle East. Swedish forces raided the Russian dark fleet cargo ship Adler overnight, with multiple agencies boarding the ship after it anchored in Swedish waters off of Höganäs. The ADLER is currently under Ukrainian sanctions.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…In November 2025, China purchased a record $961 million worth of gold from Russia, making it the largest transaction in the history of bilateral trade in the precious metal, RIA Novosti reported, citing Chinese customs data. High supply volumes are recorded for the second month in a row: in October, Russian gold exports to China were valued at $930 million. In just the first 11 months of the year, China imported $1.9 billion worth of Russian gold—almost nine times more than in the same period last year, when supplies were either nonexistent or did not exceed $223 million.
Andrea Opachi: The lessons are called “Law and Justice” and on the cover there is a photo of Putin. Students are told that the State “takes care of you for your entire life,” but in exchange you must obey the laws and “defend the Country.”
Please note the happy expressions on the childrens’ faces. Such joy.
Jamestown: Russia Overextends on Arctic Nuclear Icebreaker Goals.
Atomflot, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, is suing the Baltic Shipyard for 46.1 million rubles (about $507,100) over a 34-day delay in delivering the nuclear-powered icebreaker, Yakutia, due to international sanctions and industrial bottlenecks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin frames nuclear-powered icebreakers as instruments of sovereignty and Arctic dominance, yet the Kremlin’s Arctic goals are disconnected from logistical realities.
The slow and uneven pace of Russian construction, compared with Kremlin ambitions, has important implications for Russia’s forthcoming strategy for Arctic zone development and national security for the period until 2050.
Street cleaners from India have appeared on the streets of St. Petersburg. They work in the Primorsky District and wear a special patch on their uniform featuring the flags of their country and Russia, Fontanka reports. The publication discovered that the Indians earn a salary of 100,000 rubles. In addition, their employer, Kolomyazhskoye JSC, provides them with free accommodation, meals, and transportation. They also study with a Russian language teacher. The Indians, 17 in total, range in age from 19 to 43. "We studied the equipment, road aspects of the job, traffic regulations, and what a sidewalk and roadway are," said Maria Tyabina, Acting Head of the Comprehensive Cleaning Department at Kolomyazhskoye JSC.
We needed a laugh…
Svoboda: The Basmanny Court in Moscow has remanded Darya Egereva, an activist defending the rights of Russia’s indigenous peoples and a member of the Selkup people, a minority group in Western Siberia, to pretrial detention. She was accused of participating in an organization designated as terrorist by Russian authorities.
Egereva was detained in Moscow on December 17. Her home was searched, and her pretrial detention hearing took place on December 18. This was reported by the International Committee of the Indigenous Peoples of Russia . The committee also reported that another activist, whose name has not yet been released, was detained that same day.
To date, four Russian UAV have crashed in Turkey. This time, debris from a Merlin recon drone was found in a field in western Turkey. This follows the recent discovery of an Orlan-10 in Turkish territory.
In Europe…The Cipher Brief: Major General Maik Keller, deputy commander of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, said there has not been a drop in military supplies sent to Ukraine since Trump took office in January and stopped new direct donations from the U.S.
This steady track is due to deliveries promised under the Biden administration continuing through much of 2025, as well as the new PURL mechanism, which has supplied Ukraine with weapons from U.S. stocks paid for by NATO countries. This month alone, European countries have contributed over $4 billion to the scheme. By the end of January, NATO also plans to open a second supply hub in Romania for deliveries to Ukraine to complement the existing depot in Poland.
Maj. Gen. Keller is also cautiously optimistic that despite the recent government change in Prague, the Czech-led initiative to source ammunition for Kyiv from global suppliers may continue, even though the new Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš hinted at ending the scheme.
Euro News: An act of vandalism took place against the Consular Section of the Polish Embassy in Brussels on Thursday morning. The building of the Polish diplomatic post was daubed with red paint, and offensive political slogans were displayed on its facade.
The incident occurred on Thursday at around 3 a.m. Red paint was sprayed on the front door, the façade of the building, and the Polish emblem. The word ‘Killers’ was written in English on an information board, which states in Belgium’s official languages that the building is the seat of the Polish consulate. The slogan ‘J***ć mur’ also appeared on the wall. Dog faeces were scattered in front of the entrance.
'Without independent Ukraine, Russia will come for Poland,' Zelenskyy says as he meets Nawrocki. "There are sometimes difficult moments in our societies, but as presidents, we must define policies that keep us united. Without our independence, Moscow will inevitably push further into Europe and will come for Poland," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Warsaw.
New Czech Defence Minister suggests the artillery “shell initiative” will continue. The newly appointed Czech Defence Minister Jaromír Zuna signalled that Prague expects to extend its initiative to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, according to ČTK. Zuna plans an official visit to Ukraine, but his first foreign trip will be to Slovakia.
Ukraine, Portugal sign partnership to produce sea drones, Zelensky says. Sea drones have become a crucial component of Ukraine's defense toolkit, and co-production with a NATO ally could enhance long-term output and deepen European defense-industrial cooperation at sea.
Financial Times: The UK has ruled out using £8bn in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine after the EU failed to reach consensus on a similar plan. Britain had intended to act only in coordination with the EU, Canada, and Australia. Still, it remains committed to £3bn in annual military aid and will fast-track $2bn in World Bank guarantees to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs.
EUvsDisinfo: In 2025, Russia has been framing the EU and Ukrainian leadership as "warmongers", who don't want to stop the war in Ukraine. This, of course, is an outright lie. In reality, it's the Kremlin who has rejected at least seven peace proposals in 2025 alone.
The Cipher Brief: Officials confirmed on Friday that the UK’s Foreign Office suffered a major cyber incident in October. Sources said that Storm 1849, a cyber criminal group linked to the Chinese government, is the prime suspect and that they “accessed personal information, understood to possibly include tens of thousands of visa details.” British trade minister Chris Bryant maintained that the government “managed to close the hole, as it were, very quickly” and that the hack had “a low risk” to individuals.
Even so, an alleged China-linked cyber attack on a major British government ministry underscores how, in global competition, Beijing employs a whole-of-society approach. “They don’t think in terms of stovepipes, they think in terms of here’s our action against this country — what are all the different tools that I can use to do that?” said Rick Ledgett, former NSA Deputy Director, at The Cipher Brief’s Cyber Initiatives Group Winter Summit.
Jack Prandelli: Germany reconfigures its energy security and crosses the Atlantic. The state-owned SEFE, a former subsidiary of Gazprom and now controlled by Berlin, signed an 8-year LNG contract with Southern Energy (PAE + $YPF + $PAMP + Harbour + Golar LNG), accessing the Vaca Muerta shale gas.
Out: dependence on Russian gas pipelines;
In: global LNG market + Atlantic offer, and;
Argentina enters as structural supplier for Europe.
This agreement will serve as an anchor for the first Argentina LNG export project, with the potential to ship up to 2 Mtpa from the second half of the decade. New wave to supply the continent and reduce the risk of another energy crisis like 2022. German and perhaps European energy security is beginning to speak in Argentina.
Across the Pond and Beyond...US launches large-scale strike in Syria targeting ISIS. "This is not the beginning of a war — it is a declaration of vengeance," U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X.
Marine Traffic: US reportedly seizes second tanker near Venezuela
US forces have reportedly seized an oil tanker identified as the Panama-flagged VLCC Centuries, which had departed from the Tanjung Pelepas anchorage in Malaysia on October 17. The vessel was transmitting spoofed AIS positions, suggesting it was operating elsewhere in the Caribbean.
MarineTraffic data shows the vessel has a long history of sanction-linked operations, including multiple crude and fuel oil liftings from Venezuela flagged under OFAC restrictions. Its operational history also includes port calls at José Oil Terminal, where imagery indicates the vessel covertly loaded Merey crude in early December.
Bloomberg—NEW: US Is Said to Board Third Tanker Off Venezuela as Tensions Mount
Another oil tanker has been boarded by the US near Venezuela, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as President Donald Trump intensifies an oil blockade on Nicolás Maduro’s government.
The Bella 1 tanker, a Panamanian-flagged vessel sanctioned by the US, was en route to Venezuela to load, one of the people said, asking not to be identified. The interdiction follows the boarding of the Centuries supertanker early Saturday and the Skipper on Dec. 10.